Friday, October 24, 2008
Any more guesses on oil price?
The survey in this blog on oil price shows that most people did not predict the sharp fall of oil price in recent weeks. It is currently at US$70 whereas it was above $140 only a few months ago. Snowball, are you going to have a new oil price survey, now that we are closer to year end?
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2 comments:
This post reminds me of a hilarious article by Stanley Bing published a few months ago. One of the gists of the article is that nobody knows where oil prices are going.
http://stanleybing.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/05/21/you-read-it-here-first-1000-a-barrel-crude/
I think a discussion of the long term prospects of oil prices will be more meaningful compared to a survey of the commidity's probable short term price. It'll be an interesting topic to deliberate on especially for those who are thinking of long term bets on energy companies like PetroChina and Conoco Phillips - a company that Buffet has allegedly been buying recently.
The survey of course was just for fun. But as an investor, i would like to speculate on the movement of oil price in 2009. It is hard to say what price it will reach on a particular day, but if we have a one year time frame, any time within the year it reaches our target price then we can make a profit already. Long run? as somebody famous (so famous that I forgot his name) once said, in the long run, we are all dead. With almost all countries, especially the one with money (China) taking measures to prime the economic pump, I think oil can go back to $60, or even $70 in 2009.
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