Monday, September 29, 2008
Is fundamental analysis dead?
Many investment education programs, including the CFA program, emphasize fundamental analysis, which looks at a company's income prospect, liquidity ratios, debt to asset ratios and so on. However, in the past 14 months, what dominated the US stock market were the housing market's condition, and, more significantly, the availability of credit, and these factors also have an overriding effect on the stock markets in far away countries, some of which undoubtedly have strong trade ties with the US, but the extent of the impact on their stock market still seems disproportionate to the trade impact.
Analysts who relied solely on fundamental analysis would see the stock prices of many good companies battered to 'unreasonable' levels. In ordinary market conditions, the analysts would disregard short-term price misalignments, or even regard them as opportunities. For example, Warren Buffett's fund bought shares of USG, a US building materials manufacturer, in mid 2007 at around $38. However, this time round, the 'misalignment' has lasted more than 14 months, and who knows how much longer it will last. USG is currently trading at below $26.
Is it time for analysts to admit that the supply of liquidity and market sentiment are also important factors in determining stock price levels? and at certain times, these factors can override fundamental factors by a large margin and for a long time?
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Investment Research Challenge - Kick Off Event Coming Soon!
The 5 participating schools are the ff.:
1. Ateneo de Manila University
2. De La Salle University
3. University of Asia and the Pacific
4. University of the Philippines
5. University of Santo Tomas
Which school shall represent the Philippines?
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Questions, Comments and Suggestions as talked about in ANC! - For All Visitors

Officers:
PRESIDENT - Vandermir T. Say, CFA, VICE PRESIDENT -Maria Victoria Mangonon-Caintic, CFA, VICE PRESIDENT- Raymund Abara, CFA, TREASURER - Denis Du, CFA
SECRETARY- April Lyn Chua-Lee, CFA, DIRECTOR - Mark Yu, CFA
DIRECTOR - Ernesto Francisco Jr., CFA
Did you know that there are only 86 CFA Philippines members? CFAP members are literally, 1 in a million!
Monday, September 1, 2008
Finance and Its Fancy Lingo
Mathematics is a very systematic study – systematic even in the way it gives a term for something. First, it often uses Greek letters predominantly for numbers, sets, functions and spaces. It needs a large number of symbols to stand for these abstract objects but its wide use of Greek letters provides a collection of useful symbols to supplement the Roman letters. Second, it sometimes uses Greek prefixes as is the case in naming polygons, polyhedra, and polynomials. Such simple, systematic and consistent way of coming up with a terminology is not observed in the field of finance.
In Math, we know that Euclidean geometry, Euclidean metric, and Euclidean algorithm are all from Euclid just as Abelian groups are from Abel, and Eulerian graphs are from Euler. Likewise, Roman numerals are so called because they are a numeral system originating in ancient Rome. This makes me question why Eurobond and European option are so termed if Europe has nothing to do with them!
In Math and other disciplines, we typically use the Latin prefix semi- to an object that is half of or partly something. We have such words as semicircle, semiperimeter, semiannual, and semiformal. Now, how come a combination of American and European style options is never named semi-American or semi-European? It is because the people from Wall Street have found just a more ingenious name for it: Bermuda options! Note that it only makes sense if you're aware that Bermuda is that tiny place that is nearly halfway between the United States and Europe.
As you may have already noticed, financial jargon has very rich etymology. More often, it is influenced by popular culture. There exist countless financial terms now that alludes familiar elements in pop culture so as to portray something in finance. A good example is voodoo accounting which describes a form of financial statement manipulation. In western countries, the word “voodoo” suggests witchcraft and mysterious occurrence. Hence, in voodoo accounting, what is likened to”witchcraft" is the use of accounting gimmicks to conceal what it truly going on with the firm, resulting to "mysteriously" high revenues or assets. Another example is Santa Claus Rally, which takes place between Christmas and New Year’s Day. Just like Santa Claus who allegedly gives presents to the children, this rally brings presents to the investors in the form of a climb in the share prices.
Sometimes, a financial term can have biblical reference. You probably have heard already the phrase “baptism of fire”, citing Matthew 3:11. It is generally used to denote a first painful experience and in finance, it describes a tough challenge faced particularly by a company. It can be a situation like an IPO, merger or acquisition, or election of new officers. Other times, finance derives its terms from concepts from other fields, such as Chemistry. For instance, the term acid test ratio comes from the method of determining whether a metal is a real gold. Gold, unlike other metals, does not corrode when immersed in acid. Just as the acid test becomes a test of reliability, the acid test ratio becomes a test of financial integrity for firms.
Also observe how people from Wall Street come up with a name for a graph: it just requires a rich imagination. Unlike in Math, you don’t have to discuss the concavity, slope, or curvature of the graph. You are not required to identify its critical points, points of inflection, or intercepts. To recognize a pattern, you just have to think of the thing that it most closely resembles. For instance, cup-and-handle pattern is a popular chart patterns in technical analysis and as you might imagine from the name, this pattern resembles the shape of a tea cup. Needless to say, a head-and-shoulders pattern looks like a head with two shoulders. Hence, you should not wonder anymore how the flag and pennant patterns, and saucer bottom patterns should appear. Other non-technical analysis graphs like volatility smile, butterfly spread and Christmas tree also share the similar etymology: their names are a hint of what they look like.
The world of Mathematics will bombard you with alphas, betas and gammas. You’ll also become accustomed to hearing or even using phrases like almost all, arbitrarily large, sufficiently close, if and only if, and without loss of generality. If these are not yet nauseating enough, you’ll encounter more seemingly sophisticated terms like isomorphism, axiomatic system, parametric equation, affine planes, etc. This makes the subject sound dry, uninteresting and intimidating for many people. In contrast, the financial sector uses the language that everyone speaks. Though it may sound like good news, the truth is this language is embedded with mysterious codes that if you’re new to the industry, it can take a lot of untangling. So, to end my discussion, here are few more terms I have “untangled” when I first plunged myself into the sea of finance and its fancy lingo:
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are not famous Hollywood fraternal twins.
Pac Man is not the classical arcade game, nor is it the alias of a boxing champ.
Sleeping Beauty is not the popular fairy tale classic and Walt Disney animated film.
Whoever says being a technician does not pay well is wrong. In fact, in the world of investing, it is a white collar job that offers a lucrative pay if you’re good at it.
Detecting liquidity and solvency is a task not just for chemists. In fact, financial analysts love doing it too.
A lobster trap is made not to trap a lobster just as a shark repellent measure is done not to drive sharks away.
A golden parachute is not golden, nor is it a parachute. The same is true of a silver parachute.
A plain vanilla is not an ice cream flavor. It isn’t sweet, and most of all, it isn’t edible.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Investment Research Challenge - Skills for Singapore - Go Team CFA Philippines!
The video will help you get a better feel of the level of competition that awaits the winning team, Team CFA Philippines. Note that the teams that will go to Singapore from around the region will probably be more senior and more experienced.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Derivatives Seminar on Sept. 2, 2008 - 93% of seats taken!


We are expanding the seminar area to accomodate new Registrants!!
CFAP is hosting a presentation on the topic “Managing Volatility: Derivative
Strategies – How, Why and When” on Tuesday, September 2, 2008, from 2:00
to 5:30 PM at Ballroom 1, Renaissance Makati City Hotel Manila. Our featured
speakers are Mr. Walter Haslett, CFA, FRM and Mr. Matthew Moran.
About the Speakers
Mr. Haslett is CEO of Miller Tabak Capital Management and Director of Option Analytics
for Miller Tabak + Co., LLC where he is responsible for developing option-related
products, research and money management services. Haslett previously founded a
derivatives-based investment management firm managing more than $300 million in
conservative option strategies. He is a member of the Institutional Investor Advisory
Committee for the Chicago Board Options Exchange, a group of the largest buyside
option users in North America.
Mr. Moran is Vice President for Business Development of the Chicago Board Options
Exchange, and is responsible for many of the exchange's marketing and educational
efforts for pension funds, mutual funds, and other institutional investors. He had a
leadership role in developing and marketing the CBOE S&P 500 BuyWrite Index (BXM)
and the CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite Index (PUT), both of which received the Most
Innovative Benchmark Index award at the annual Super Bowl of Indexing Conference.
You may start posting topics and questions that you would like us to tackle during this seminar.
For inquiries, please call the CFA Philippines Secretariat at +63(2)3971010 / +63(921) 3321151 or send emails to secretariat@cfap.cfasociety.org.
FEES
Professors/Students (Please present valid School ID) PHP 1,500.00
Early Bird Rate (Payment Deadline: Aug. 29 2008) PHP 2,500.00
Regular Rate PHP 3,000.00
Monday, July 28, 2008
Investment Research Challenge - Go Team CFA Philippines!!
The Regional Competition will be held in Singapore on February 2009.
In April 2009, the Finals will be held in London.
Manila Water Company
Manila Water Company is the company to be analyzed for the 1st round of the competition. This is a Philippine listed corporation in the Utilities Industry and it provides Water and Sewerage services to 5.1M residents of Metro Manila. In 1997, MWC had only 3 million customers and these customers did not have 24 access to water.
"Manila Water's future growth will be focused on the improvement and expansion of water services in the East Zone, its core business area. Growth in this area is expected to come from the increased demand brought about by the population growth and expansion of water and sanitation service commitments to unserved and underserved areas. The Company also regularly explores the possibility of bringing its services in areas outside the East Zone. Manila Water is considering new concessions, acquisitions or partnerships with other water districts, sanitation projects as well as management service contracts in selected countries in the Asian region." - MWC website
Bulls say:
Bears say:
Please go to http://www.manilawater.com/ for more information.
Please go to http://www.pse.com.ph/ and read the Company Disclosures of MWC and peers.
More details will be posted on this blog. Note that all views and comments in this posting are not the official views of CFA Philippines.
You are welcome to post your questions. Check out the comments section for advice and guidance from your friends at CFA Philippines!
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Marc Faber in the Philippines on October 9, 2008! : Commodities to take pause
Marc Faber, a speaker at a CFA Philippines investment seminar last year, thinks that industrial commodities will experience price pressure in the second half of 2008, before returning to their uptrend next year. His view about market difficulties last year was dead on. Is he correct again this time? http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=anaGrzNdKquc#
Friday, July 4, 2008
How to grow the Philippine stock market?
The main reasons that countries promote stock exchanges are :
- As a means to raise capital for local businesses;
- For developing the financial sector (as a source of jobs and economic growth);
- To directly generate revenue for the government (stamp duties, tax on transactions and so on).
Most countries find the first factor most important, whereas cities like Hong Kong and Singapore have managed to grow their financial sector to become a major segment of the economy in terms of jobs and business generation. The third factor normally would be a secondary consideration, since the major benefits of a successful stock exchange are incurred from the first two factors. However, some times a successful stock exchange can generate a sizeable revenue for the government directly in addition to the benefits reaped from the first two factors. For example, even though Hong Kong only levies a 0.1% duties on the value of stock transactions, revenue from this source is estimated to be about 10% of the government's total projected revenue for 2008/9 (assuming stamp duties from stock transactions make up half of the stamp duties collected), or over USD$2 billion. This is not a one-off payment, but recurring in nature, although the amount may vary from year to year.
There should therefore be significant benefit to the economy if the Philippines could grow its equity market, which, at the moment, is suffering from:
- anaemic local interest in investing in the stock market;
- limited number of listed companies or products.
Which one should we tackle first, if we want to grow the Philippine stock market? The first problem certainly looks more serious than the second, with such low local participation in investing. The second problem, however, may be easier to tackle. The first step being the elimination of the 4% tax levied on Initial Public Offering.
Indeed, it is very hard to understand why any government would want to discourage its companies from raising capital. While companies are working so hard to try to reduce the cost of borrowing or increase profit by even as little as half a percent, the 4% tax on IPO proceeds is incomprehensible from any public policy perspective. Most governments would find it more beneficial to the whole economy to encourage more stock market listing.
Friday, June 6, 2008
Stock markets dominated by Interest Rate Differential

That plan worked for two days. Then the European central bank indicated that they may increase interest rate to combat inflation. If they do, then the interest rate differential will widen again, so US dollar fell anew against Euro, and commodity prices were lifted. The graph on gold price, as represented by GLD in the US stock market, shows the effect of these two events on commodity prices. The same for oil price. Of course, the bad news from the US financial sector (re Lehman Brothers) and US jobs data also worked against the US stock market, but the effect of the interest rate diffential cannot be ignored.

When US stock market sneezes, the Philippine stock market usually trembles. Brace for Monday (Oops! Sorry, Monday is a holiday, for Independence Day, the official celebrations ofwhich will be held on 12 June. Holidays in the Philippines can change a few days before the previously assumed holiday. Maybe the government knew the stock market is going to be slammed.)
Monday, June 2, 2008
Phils. issues USD2.25bn Debt Exchange Warrants
Saturday, May 24, 2008
Investment Climate of the Philippines
1. UPS announced their planned transfer of their hub to a more centrally located USD180M facility at the Shenzhen airport. May 2008.
2. Intel Corp. has announced its possible exit from the Philippines as it plans to close its second offshore assemply operations center in Asia.
3. One of the highest power rates in Asia; second only to Japan.
4. The Philippines is now the world's largest importer of rice. "Decades ago, Vietnamese and Thai students learnt rice cultivation methods in Philippine universities and implemented these upon return to their countries. Thus, many find it ironic that the Philippines is now the world’s biggest rice importer and has to buy rice from the very same people who studied in its institutions." (ipsnews)
5. Corruption is perceived as widespread. The Philippines ranks 121st out of 163 countries in Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index for 2006. Corruption is pervasive and long-standing. Enforcement of anti-corruption laws is inconsistent, and the public perception of judicial, executive, and legislative corruption remains high. (Heritage Foundation)
Advantages of investing in the Philippines:
1. Large english-speaking work force.
2. Significant foreign currency inflows amounting to around USD10-12bn/year from the overseas foreign workers.
Is there hope for more foreign investments in the Philippines?
What should we be doing to attract and keep foreign investments in the Philippines?
What are the advantages of investing in the Philippines?
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
REIT Investor Series - June 17, 2008
Monday, April 28, 2008
Value Investing
Great Businesses at Low Prices!
Friday, April 25, 2008
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)

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Monday, April 21, 2008
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